4815162342.com

[zombie_soiree]

UPDATES:
2007.3.26: a new timeline has been added at the bottom of this post.
2007.4.29: a new section on Desmond has been added below the one for Cerberus.
2007.5.10: minor details changed after "Man behind the Curtain"
Coming soon: who or what is Jacob?

This theory attempts to answer some of the key questions behind "Lost." It posits that the aim of the islanders' "fate" is to change the course of mankind.

Philosophy

What do I mean by "Fate"?
Fate is not used here in the Calvinist sense--that is, an inescapable end result that is pre-determined; rather, I am trying to show how, even as alternative possibilities decline, the course of an individual or all of mankind still can be changed quite dramatically by actions that transform the conditions of an individual or all mankind.

Why "Fate"?
One of the major mysteries of "Lost" is its focus on how individuals are or are not able to transcend their pasts. A mirror theme is the "Valenzetti Equation," which charts the Fate of mankind itself. If the future is determined by acts in the past and the present, how can an individual, or mankind itself, escape the consequences of their (especially immoral) actions?

If we are to believe Jean-Jacques Rousseau (after which Danielle is named), we have a natural capacity for goodness, if our basic needs are met. Most importantly, however, men must be self-aware. or they will be little better than savage beasts.

John Locke proposed that men begin life with a "blank slate," and the character "John Locke" said as much in "Lost" about the island. The castaways, however, allow events in their past lives to affect their decisions on the island. They are haunted by phantasmal images that attempt to control their actions. Can they re-invent themselves in this new context?

David Hume, whose surname was given to "Lost" character Desmond, was profoundly influenced by Locke's empiricism, and argued strongly that all human knowledge is acquired through perception. This is symbolized in our beloved TV show by the omnipresent eye shots. That being said, Locke insisted that the strongest form of knowledge is intuition, and Hume argued that we should not assume cause lead to effect--we should trust our immediate perceptions. The island castaways thus must overcome their a priori beliefs and selves in order to see the "truth" and make ethical decisions. These decisions will affect the future of all mankind (see below).

Summary
The island is a microcosm of human society globally, with the major philosaophies of Locke, Rousseau, and Hume represented most prominently. "Lost" proposes that the island's society is a version of the larger global community (in fact, all three philosophers were concerned with what constituted an ideal society). For mankind to save itself, we must be self-aware, free from our pasts, trusting of our perceptions, and moral actors.

Background

The Hanso Family

The story of “Lost” begins with the history of the Hanso family. Magnus Hanso, a slave trader and captain of the sailing vessel called the “Black Rock,” was en route from Papua New Guinea in 1881, where it had delivered Africans for gold mining operations.

Possibly following the trail of Polynesian legends of a magical island, the “Black Rock” sailed East (instead of West, to Africa) where it encountered bizarre weather conditions so severe that hurricane-level winds and tidal waves cast it onto the shores of an uncharted island in the South Pacific. There they discovered the descendents of many other castaways from ancient times. The island inhabitants had built a statue there to revere their god—an image of the perfect man. The statue--a symbol of peace reminiscent of the Colossus of Rhodes--was similarly destroyed by an earthquake, leaving only the foot and shin.

The descendents of Hanso, his crew, and the slaves intermarried with the locals and lived on the island, and Hanso himself was buried there. Magnus Hanso’s company was sold in 1882, one year after his disappearance.

Following the conclusion of the Second World War and the detonation of the atomic bomb, Magnus’ grandson, Alvar, who had made a fortune supplying various forces with deadly arms, was sufficiently horrified with mankind’s brutality that he dedicated himself to world peace. He examined the dark history of his family, and soon discovered the island on which his grandfather had died. He knew it was no ordinary island, and set about studying it in depth. When he discovered it, he realized that the island was the source of several strange phenomena, including unusual electromagnetic activity. It also prolonged his life.

In 1952, the Soviet Union successfully tested a nuclear device, and by 1960, both superpowers had developed ICBM rocket technology. When the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred (1962), the UN commissioned a study of the probabilities for nuclear holocaust.

Enzo Valenzetti, a peripatetic doomsday philosopher, was contracted. He developed his eponymous “Valenzetti Equation,” which predicted the exact year, month, and day when mankind would destroy itself—although the exact cause is unknown. The “core values” of his equation were the cryptic numbers: 4 8 15 16 23 42. These numbers tracked the various factors involved in the Equation, possibly including: environmental change, population growth, epidemic disease, mass psychology, and nuclear arms proliferation. The mathematical equation plots the course of the ruling force in all humans’ destiny.

The Hanso Foundation and the DHARMA Initiative

Hanso discovered Valenzetti’s findings in 1966, and then addressed the UN the following year. Disturbed by Valenzetti’s conclusions, Hanso used his ill-gotten wealth to organize the “Hanso Foundation,” and used it to begin a search for a solution to the main problem: how might mankind’s Fate be changed? Sometime between 1967 and 1969, he was surprised to see that two enigmatic researchers at the University of Michigan, Karen and Gerald DeGroot, applied for a grant addressing many of his concerns, including social management.

Hanso and the DeGroots soon became close, and, in 1970, the “DHARMA Initiative” was born. The Department of Heuristics and Research on Material Applications, or DHARMA, was designed to find ways to solve (heuristics) the problems described by the Valenzetti Equation through scientific means (material applications). The DeGroots and Hanso essentially said: now that the problem is understood (VE), what can be done (DHARMA)? Hanso realized that many of the DeGroots’ projects could be explored particularly well on one unique area of the world—the island discovered by Hanso’s grandfather. It may have been Fate, but Hanso realized that he alone was uniquely positioned to aid the DeGroots’ effort to save mankind through science. Hanso worked closely with his contacts in the Soviet and American governments, procuring arms, engineers, and political support. He arranged for the facilities to be built and supplied by an old contact—industrial magnate Arthur Widmore (relative of Charles--thanks Dino!), of the Widmore Corporation. Widmore and the US/USSR governments were purposefully kept in the dark about the specific nature of the experiments. Eventually, only Widmore would even know the location of the island, hiding its location even from his own family--especially the power-hungry Charles.

DHARMA was comprised of SIX research stations:
1. The Arrow: storage and staging
2. The Staff: medical: included basic medical functions, as well as Life Extension studies, anti-viral research, and human genetic engineering. It may also be the site for experimentation in psychotropic drugs and mental illnesses.
3. The Swan: studying the Island’s unique electromagnetic properties, maintaining a large electromagnet, keeping the island hidden from satellites. The Swan dams and harnesses extreme magnetic fluctuations on the island, emanating from the Earth’s ferrous core. If left unchecked, the electromagnet will adversely affect the entire magnetic “shield” of the Earth, and possibly pull much of the surface matter of the Earth in towards the core. (Geologically, this might be insignificant, but, for life on Earth, utterly disastrous.) My guess is that the current incarnation of the Swan e-mag was completed and fully operational around 1979 or 1980.
.... The operator and final member of DHARMA, Kelvin, was recruited after the conclusion of the first Iraq War in February, 1991.
4. The Flame: Communications with the outside world by sonar and dish (both disabled by the electromagnetic pulse released via the failsafe switch, later the entire installation was destroyed by Locke).
5. The Pearl: psychological testing and scientific training: Karen DeGroot was particularly concerned that DHARMA employees possess abilities for “careful observation” that would lead to “complete awareness.” Psychological experiments would also include parapsychology, training subjects to respect authority, engineering members of a utopian society (changing antisocial behavior), etc. Residents of the Pearl were fooled into believing that the Swan members were the objects of inquiry, not themselves.
6. The Hydra: zoological studies, including finding ways to make organisms adaptable to radically changed environments. Presumably, mankind would one day be subject to such changes. It may also be a space to determine how to maintain an ecosystem capable of sustaining human life.
Facilities also included a radio transmitter, located at the center of the island, storage bunkers, a ferryboat, a mini-sub (the Galaga), an intra-island communications network insulated against electromagnetic pulses (Dharmatel), and, eventually, the Cerebus Security System. The radio tower transmitted the results of the island’s experiments, which, like a death knell, only tolled “4 8 15 16 23 42” over and over.
DHARMA recruited men and women from around the world for various functions. First and foremost, they required scientists, including botanists, biologists, psychologists, physicists, engineers, and doctors. Second, they also sought out those who could handle security (people with martial arts training). Third, they needed capable managers and leaders to maintain order. All members were put through a rigorous training program on a separate island before being transported to the main island on the Pala Ferry.

The Incident

Directly after the successful launch of the electromagnet in the Swan, in 1980 residents of the Swan used the Dharmatel network to communicate with someone outside the bunker. Someone (or something) was able to affect the operation of the magnet or the operator himself, and the electromagnet was caused to malfunction. The consequent leak of electromagnetic energy destroyed the broadcast tower and disrupted experiments on the entire island. Fortunately, a member of the project was able to shut down the electromagnet, or it was destroyed by its own force. After DHARMA stations were rebuilt, the magnet was controlled by the button, which discharges the periodic build up of energy from the island, or the failsafe switch, which destroys the magnet and allows the island’s electromagnetic force to flow naturally.

Realizing the danger, DHARMA shot a new orientation on a film reel (which would not be affected by magnetic forces, unlike the Sony U-Matic tape in the Pearl, created in 1980, before the Incident), featuring the strange scientist Marvin Candle, who appeared to have lost his arm during the Incident.

The operations of one station were largely cut off from those of the others to ensure security. Only the Pearl could view the goings on in other hatches.

The Island

The Island is a geologically unique spot on the Earth that expunges unusual amounts of magnetic force from the Earth’s core. This energy also affects weather patters nearby, particularly during periods of intense solar activity.

Whenever close to the island, compasses do not work, making traditional navigation impossible, and, after the launch of the new electromagnet in 1979 or 1980, electronic equipment is disturbed by the electromagnetic field emanated by the Swan station. Currents and wind patterns circulate and churn around the island due to the unusual magnetic forces emanating from it. Thus, nearby sailing vessels, aircraft, and even sea life are drawn to the island like a magnet.
The island also affects human consciousness in disturbing ways. Either as a result of electromagnetic waves or something in the water, unprotected residents living on the surface of the island often fall prey to delusions and “lost time” similar to ingestion of psychoactive substances such as LSD or psilocybin. Use of psychotropic substances only exacerbates these symptoms.

This was particularly true of the island’s original inhabitants, who developed strange philosophical and spiritual beliefs, often leading to mass psychosis. This phenomenon has never been fully understood, but later Hanso Foundation officials have tried to countermand and possibly exploit these phenomena through the Mental Health Appeal.

Alvar Hanso once said, “The future need not be an undiscovered country. Through science and technology we can turn our inexorable forward motion into a safe journey into a well-charted haven of tranquility.” The island has been known to cause “precognitive” moments, but these need not be considered psychic phenomena; in fact, it is merely the mind’s ability to calculate conceivable possibilities based on the chain of cause and effect—just like the measurements of the Valenzetti Equation.

Story

A Rebellious Community and Meddlesome Castaways

The island had pre-DHARMA inhabitants. They were hostile to the newcomers, but evaded capture by DHARMA teams. Lockdown procedures protected DHARMA employees from the hostiles, but not out in the open. Sometime between 1980 and 1991, indigenous islanders launched a poison gas offensive in order to overthrow the DHARMA Initiative. It was at this time that Benjamin Linus, who was NOT born on the island, agreed to kill his father in order to gain access to the Hostile camp. He was most likely the one who disabled the security perimeter in order to help the Hostiles kill all of the DHARMA employees.

For those who survived the attack, it was clear that the DHARMA Initiative had failed to change the course of mankind, and that a kind of “Noah’s Ark” should be built instead. Following the Hostiles' own ideology, if one was “good,” one could stay on the island; if one was, “bad,” one would be abandoned, killed, or used for slave labor. Lists of “good” people were prepared by the leader of the rebels, an extraordinary man named “Jacob"--with whom apparently only Benjamin Linus could communicate.
They formed a tight-knit "intentional community" on the island based on utopian social values--ironically inherited, in part, from DHARMA ideology. Decision making was democratic, and island culture was nurturing and supportive. They tried to preserve all that was good about humanity for the coming rebirth of mankind.
By the time they were fully entrenched, sinister forces on the outside had contacted them. They worked with these outside forces through the communication systems, and soon the island was a staging ground for a new kind of "One True Way."
The Hostiles used the Galaga to move new recruits from the outside world, cooperating with corporate interests under the research group "Mittelos Bioscience." The final recruit was Juliet, who arrived on the island September 5, 2001 (possibly ten years after DHARMA's final recruit, Kelvin Inman, in 1991), but others, such as Ethan Rom, had been recruited by the Hostiles before that time. They used the powers of the island to help develop biotechnology for profit, which in turn became the funding basis for medical equipment, building materials, and other creature comforts. Unfortunately, this transformation of the "Others" from a group of "noble savages" into khaki-wearing suburbanites greatly altered the conditions of their existence and distanced them from their original "Destiny."
This roughly coincided with the disappearance of Alvar Hanso and the rise of Thomas Werner Mittelwerk (see below).

Unfortunately for both the rebels and DHARMA, the island continued to draw more meddlesome castaways to its shore, and their knowledge of the island’s facilities was incomplete, so some of the old DHARMA members were untouched. The Hydra facilities were initially in tumult: many animals, including sharks and polar bears, escaped into the wild.
By 1985, DHARMA had had enough. They initiated a "Purge" of the island's previous inhabitants, but it did not go as planned. DHARMA members were overrun by the tactically superior "Hostiles" on the island, led by Jacob, and all stations except the Swan were lost. The new rulers of the island--although they would say the island was always "theirs"--used DHARMA's supply drops to secure food and medicine. Soon, they would send their own people off of the island to recruit members for their burgeoning community.
In 1988, a French scientific team heard the radio broadcast of the numbers and encountered the island’s unforgiving weather; they crashed on the island (at roughly the same time, Sam Toomey also heard the numbers at a Navy listening station—was this another “incident”?). Wandering around the island unprotected, some members of the French team went mad, and others joined the hostile islanders. Many of their number were either killed or captured, except for the elusive Danielle Rousseau.

Her infant daughter, Alex, was captured.
During the "Purge," ex-DHARMA employees assisted the rebels by operating the Galaga mini-sub and launched attacks on the island. Inhabitants of the “Pearl,” on their way to the Pala Ferry and the barracks, were waylaid; at least one escaped the rebels and was consumed by a Hydra polar bear that had been trained to live on the island.
Due to lockdown procedures, the rebels could not access all stations on the island. The location of the Swan was unknown, and its inhabitant—Radzinski—continued his work in isolation. He would later be joined by new recruit Kelvin Joe Inman (formerly CIA).

But DHARMA was gone, and had been for some time. The extreme isolation drove Radzinski to suicide. The last official DHARMA recruit, Kelvin Inman, too began descending into desperation.
In 2001, Desmond David Hume crashed on the island, ironically the ill-fated lover of Charles Widmore’s daughter, Penelope. Inman, unaware that the Swan station and DHARMA’s meteorological work made escape from the island impossible, believed that he could sail away. He was accidentally killed by Hume before the insurgents / hostiles could detect his presence or that of the Elizabeth. Hume was left alone, constantly on the brink of madness.
Around the same time, Henry Gale, an employee of the Widmore Corporation, also crashed there due to the meteorological anomalies of the island.

He was buried by the rebels, and later became a cover story for one of their top commanders (Ben Linus).
In 2002, control of the Hanso Foundation was usurped by Thomas Werner Mittelwerk, who was determined to alter the course of humanity and save us no matter what the cost.

Alvar Hanso was held in protective custody, as was Enzo Valenzetti. Meanwhile, the rebels did not let the outside world know that they had overthrown DHARMA. Widmore, who was probably none the wiser, in any case continued food and supply drops to the island pursuant to his contract with Hanso, but did not reveal the location of the island to Mittelwerk. Only Alvar and Widmore’s selected employees knew the location. As Mittelwerk searched for the island, two more years passed.

How did the plane crash?
Flight 815 departed 2:55pm from Sydney to Los Angeles on November 22, 2004. LA-Sydney is roughly an eight hour flight. Six hours into the flight, the pilot lost radio contact and turned towards Fiji. Two hours later and a thousand miles of course, the plane was hit by an unexplained turbulence, possibly caused by severe weather disturbances due to disruptions either of the Swan or DHARMA’s meteorological studies. The plane lost altitude, but stabilized as it was heading towards the island; the pilot continued to decrease altitude, gently, to gain a visual of Fiji. Then, the plane struck the rapidly growing electromagnetic field emanating from the Swan at 4:16pm (island time), which destroyed all electrical and many mechanical functions of the jumbo jet. Flying pieces of metal, dislodged by the magnet, may have flown into the jet engine, causing severe damage.

This EM blast was the direct result of Desmond’s failure to enter the numbers into the Swan computer. Metallic (not aluminum) parts of the plane subject to magnetic attraction (the plane frame, moving parts of the engine, etc) were pulled towards the Swan’s powerful magnetic force, which Carlton Cuse once described as capable of “pulling the entire Earth inside” of it. At 2000 ft, this force, working against the plane’s velocity, ripped the plane apart just as Desmond managed to shut down the field.

The fuselage and the tail sections descended at angles, and the robust structure of the newly-designed Boeing-777 saved many lives (72 out of 108 passengers).

That being said, many died tragically. It was extremely unusual for this survival rate to occur, but, considering the low altitude, trajectory, and jet design, not impossible.
The electromagnetic field only extended up to the cruising altitude of Oceanic 815, still in the lower reaches of the stratosphere. Later, the failsafe switch would expunge massive electromagnetic energy into space, thus changing the way we see solar radiation above (sky turning color).

What is the Cerberus Security System?

First, we must consider how Cerberus “works.”
Cerberus is a fluid cloud of nanoparticles suspended in an electromagnetic field, but it is not a “nanobot” per se. Like an MRI, Cerberus sends “signals” such as electromagnetic fields or emitting an RF pulse to affect protons in living tissue. The signals react to chemical and electric information transmitted in the brain, and then are “resent” (discharged by subatomic particles in the body) by the object of inquiry.

Nanoparticles inside Cerberus are charged by the energy released by the human subject (again, analogous to an MRI) and act as a kind of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) that Cerberus “recharges” electrically in nanoseconds. Cerberus is able to parse these signals, like binary code, producing images of the subject’s DNA, brain structure, and even fragmentary “thoughts” such as images, sounds, words, rudimentary “feelings” (fear, anger, happiness), and smells. Cerberus then uses these electronic “memories” (just like your computer uses RAM) to process information about the person being studied.
How Cerberus “thinks” is the real conundrum. There are three possibilities:
1. Cerberus does not “think”: a human being with access to this information thinks for Cerebus and, beyond its most basic functions, tells it what to do.
2. Cerberus is somehow able to replicate processor functions in a computer through a specific arrangement of its nanoparticles. (This is unlikely, as it would definitely make Cerberus a "nanobot")
3. Cerberus does not “think”: It relays its information to a mechanical source, like a computer, which tells it what to do. For constant communication, all Cerberus needs to do is form a chain two nanoparticles thick, moving electrical charges along particles to and fro with a "value" of 1 or 0, to establish a rudimentary I/O link. Considering how small these particles are, Cerberus could do this for as far as its electromagnetic field has the power to stretch. Information would transfer as quickly as electrical current can travel along its particle chain (almost instantaneous). Cerberus could also physically move information back and forth.
Cerberus makes noises by vibrating its nanoparticles to emit specific sounds, many of which have been culled from subject “memories” or have been “programmed” into the machine. It makes sounds only in order to intimidate potential threats on the island.
Cerberus can uproot trees and grab Locke’s leg because, by selectively binding nanoparticles together magnetically, it can become as strong (if not stronger) than steel.
Why does Cerberus exist?
Cerberus is a security system, as correctly pointed out by Danielle Rousseau. Its main function is to cleanse the island of troublesome intruders or test subjects gone awry. It was most likely used as part of the "Purge" conducted by DHARMA against the Hostiles.
Cerberus is first and foremost designed to detect patterns of fear in the subject’s mind. Like a guard dog (Cerberus was a three headed dog who guarded the entrance to the Underworld), it reacts strongly to fear in humans, because fear is a dead giveaway that a person is up to no good. Normal subjects would know not to react this way to Cerberus, and thus would be spared as a matter of course. (This is also why Locke and Eko have been able to face Cerberus and survive.) Cerberus CAN be ordered to kill a subject by its handler.
BAD ROBOT
Sometime following the AH/MDG Incident, Cerberus malfunctioned and began killing DHARMA employees. Considering Juliet's response to Kate ("we don't know what it is"), Cerberus is NOT controlled by the “Others.” Cerberus is restricted to certain zones of the island—as far as its electromagnetic field has the power to allow it to operate. It cannot pass the sonic fence (built by DHARMA after Cerberus went "bad") because certain sound waves interfere with the proper functioning of its electromagnetic field. (Scientists have been conducting experiments on the relationship between sound and electromagnetic waves for years, achieving effects such as producing sound from metal suspended in electromagnetic fields.) Now Cerberus roams the island, killing anyone whom it deems to be an "enemy," or those who exhibit fear--which pretty much meant everyone except Locke and Eko.
Briefly:
01. Does Cerberus read minds? No it takes “pictures.”
02. Is Cerberus a nanobot? Not really, it is more like a nano-arm and nano-eye for someone/something else.
03. Who controls Cerberus? Not the Others/Hostiles, so probably no one. It is a "bad robot" gone awry, like a guard dog off its leash.
For current technologies of "brain scanning," search for "Braingate" and "fMRI" on Google.

Desmond David Hume in 4-D
Nota bene: this is a preliminary approach, not a full-fledged theory. I cannot yet explain the "why" or the "how." Take this reading, therefore, with a heavy dose of salt.

In the episode "Flashes before Your Eyes," it seemed that Desmond can "see" the future as well as "travel" back to the past--but is this what is really happening? TPTB have disavowed "time travel" on several occasions, and yet tell us to pay attention to time in the show.

You experience the "Fourth Dimension" all the "time." Desmond, however, is now experiencing it a little differently. As rather specifically-evolved organisms, we see time in three dimensions--a linear progression where we are born, grow, live, and die. In 4-D, however, we would be all of those things--born, growing, living, and dead. Desmond is not "traveling" back and forward in time, he IS himself in 1996, he IS himself on the island, and he IS himself in the future being saved by Penny. The thing is, we are all of those things as well, we just don't see it that way. The only thing that separates you from Desmond is that he, for some reason unexplainable by me, able to notice this fact, albeit in short "flashes."
Desmond is trying to change the future because he KNOWS (from being there) that it is often a bad place. The problem is, the future is largely bound to past and present. Not simply cause and effect, but who we ARE as people. To change the future, then, we have to change all of these selves. Is that even possible? So far, for Desmond, only barely so.
This is why the concept of self-awakening is so important to "Lost." For those of us "bound by space and time," we think in simple cause and effect: if I get in a time travel device and go back to the past, I can change the future! We think of the fourth dimension as simply another three-dimensional room into which we can step and move things around. The question you have to ask yourself is: if you appeared in 1996, would you be the same person who left 2004 to "set things right"? Perhaps the person in 2004 needs to change first, or all of them--1996, 2004, and 2015--need to change at the same time because they are the same.

The Castaways, an Alternative Community

By the end of 2004, the Jacob's "family" structure had become autocratic and controlling. They learned from their DHARMA predecessors the savage art of interrogation techniques, including dehumanization (bear cages), hard labor (rock quarry), isolation (Hydra cell), and psychological conditioning for breaking the will--the latter involved injection of a barbiturate or sodium pentothal, sleep deprivation (light goggles), sound immersion, and messages of love and self-recrimination derived from Buddhist and Judeo-Christian texts.

The “leaders” of the community prided themselves on being a good “family,” and believed themselves more or less in control of the island. They began recruiting "good" people for their community (Ethan Rom, Juliet Burke, and Mikhail Bakunin) as early as 1993. Jacob was in touch with the "Island" more than anyone else--he heard the voice of their "God" like no one else could; he used this voice to construct the "List." This family did not, however, plan on the arrival of Flight 815. Once the plane crashed, however, the Family was able to use their off-island contacts to construct complete profiles of the survivors.
All of the Oceanic castaways are connected to each other, or also to the DHARMA Initiative, Hanso Foundation, and Widmore Corporation. Amazingly enough, they arrived at the island on Flight 815 completely by chance, just as some of their previous, off-island intersections have been “coincidental.” The same “Fate” that governs the logic of the Valenzetti Equation governs the lives of the individual castaways. That “Fate” can be observed—for example, in visions—by some people, whom we call “psychics,” but also by just about anyone on the island.

Think of Fate as declining permutations. As a bead of water rolls down a jungle leaf, its possible courses of movement become fewer and fewer in number, allowing us to effectively “foresee” its future destination. In the Hanso Foundation, this was referred to as “mathematical forecasting,” which was essentially a tool of statistics. If we turn the leaf, however, we change the conditions—which was precisely what the DHARMA Initiative tried to do with the VE. This is similar to how a Grandmaster chess player can predict a weaker opponent’s moves—or create conditions so that the weaker play must take certain moves. Competing forces—some might call such forces “light” and “dark,” but they could also simply be “left” and “right”—try to determine the course of individuals every day. As droplets of water, or pieces on a backgammon table, how much agency do we have to determine our individual futures, and in turn the future of us all?

The castaways of flight 815 radically restructured the dynamics of the island. Without Jack, Ben would have inevitably died. Without Locke, Desmond would have killed himself, and the Swan would have possibly destroyed the Earth. In every instance of desperation and near cataclysm, the intervention of another can prove decisive, even if it is accidental.
The castaways do not adhere to the rebels’ values, and they are a clear threat to the community. Efforts to pick and choose who can stay on “their island” have not always been effective, and the islanders are proving quick learners in the art of deception. As they become more and more intertwined, enemies and friends can easily become confused. Will certain “guiding lights” of the castaways’ community usurp the rebels’ stewardship of the island?
The outcome may be more important than who determines who gets to survive the end of mankind on the island. Alvar Hanso selected the island in 1970 due to its peculiar properties, understanding that it alone may have the power to alter the Fate of mankind on a global scale. The decisions of individuals on the island may decide which way the leaf will tip, and to what end we dew drops will fall. Hatred and violence may lead to a quicker, more violent end to man, but ethical decisions may tip the scales and actually re-write the Valenzetti Equation.

Please keep all questions and criticisms coming; the best theories are always a group endeavor.


Z

Appendix: A LOST Timeline:
1881: Magnus Hanso departs from Papua (New Guinea) with gold and some African slaves, but, instead of heading West, heads East in search of the Island.
1882: One year after the disappearance of Magnus, his relatives sell his shipping company.
1894: the date that DJ Dan claims Alvar Hanso was born (not verifiable).
1945: The atomic bomb is dropped; Alvar Hanso dedicates himself to world peace.
1945~1950: Alvar retraces his grandfather’s steps and discovers the location of the Island.
1952: the USSR tests its nuclear device
1962: The Cuban Missile Crisis; the UN hires Enzo Valenzetti to predict the end of mankind.
1963: Results of the equation are buried and Enzo disappears.
1964~1967: Alvar Hanso discovers the results of the Valenzetti Equation
1967: Hanso addresses the UN, but meets resistance from the powerful men who commissioned it.
1968~1969: Alvar meets the DeGroots.
1970: The DHARMA Initiative is born; construction begins on the Island; “The Flame” is built some time before 1988.
1979: The Swan becomes operational.
1980: “The Incident” occurs; the orientation films for the “Swan” and the “Pearl” are created and the “button” and “failsafe” are designed.
1985: DHARMA launches the “Purge.” The films and programs for the “Flame” are made. The AH/MDG Incident occurs.
1987: The Hanso Foundation abandons the DHARMA Initiative.
1988: Sam Toomey hears the “numbers;” Rousseau’s scientific team crashes on the Island after following the “numbers.” Capture of the Flame by the Hostiles?
1991: Kelvin Inman is recruited by DHARMA and sent to the Island.
1992: Bakunin hears the broadcast of the numbers from a listening station in Vladivostok; the Hostiles capture the “Galaga” submarine.
1993: Bakunin is brought to the island by the Hostiles.
1996: The events of “Flashes Before Your Eyes” occur.
1999: Desmond leaves prison.
2000: Desmond meets Libby and gets “David’s” boat.
2001: Desmond Hume crashes on the Island.
2001.9.5: Juliet arrives on the Island.
2001.12.31: Alvar Hanso’s last appearance.
2002.1.??: Thomas Werner Mittelwerk usurps control of the Hanso Foundation.
2002: Hugo Reyes uses the “numbers” to win the lottery.
2004.7.??: Henry Gale crashes on the Island (according to Ben).
2004.9.22: Desmond fails to enter the “numbers” into the Swan computer in a timely fashion; Flight 815 crashes on the Island.

[The_Final_Girl]

good stuff, of course.

[IvanM]

Your theory starts pretty good, I especially like the idea of a society living on the island long ago. But when it comes to the part of rebellion and fight amongst the dharma and the creation of noa's ark It gets pretty messy.

First of this decision would be very irrational in the scientific approach. Giving up on a problem is not very scientific nor in the spirit of dharma. Except in the case that the Valenzzeti date of earths destruction is very near it would make no sense that they would give up if there is still more years or even decades until the end of the world date.

Also Smokey as a nano arm of someone is basically the same as nano bot and it has been discredited, also if it is a nano arm why the metallic gear sounds?

These sounds suggest a simple gear mechanism as a support. Also the insertion of Fate at the end is quite confusing.

Fate states that all events of the world are predetermined. There is no partial "fate" or statistical "fate" . The vallenzeti equation is at best a statistical prediction and not an exact Fate .

Quite simply if it is an exact fate then there would not be anything that anyone could do about it . Hence the very existence of Dharma would be futile and unnecessary and any effort to change anything is bound to fail.

BTW According to the map in Lockdown it is Cerberus(as in greek keeper of the undergound world) and not cerebus (as in anything brain related).
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Theories:
Cage
Monster pt.1
Stalker

[gudge]

good stuff. a good read. its a very good theory on the history of the island. Not too sure about the stuff since 815 arrived but the rest is really good.

one thing caught my eye that i would like you to expand on though please Zombie

[Locke_and_Boone]

Is very nice!!
Me like!!
No seriosly really good work man!!
Keep updating!!
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'No matter what is happening to Humanity, wheather it's natural or man-made, I always hope it gets worse.' - George Carlin

[zombie_soiree]

Thanks for the words of encouragement and critique, guys & gals. IMO, the best theories are always collective endeavors.

[galdino]

Nice work Z! A long damn read, but, yeah, sometimes it's good. I agree with most of things you talked about in your theory, things that I really believe are happening on LOST.

[adam_n_eve]

"1. All members of DHARMA who work in hatches affected by Ben et alia's rebellion would have to have been recruited before the rebellion began. I theorized that the rebellion began with the Hydra, and spread to the Staff, Arrow, and Pearl, leaving the Flame and Swan unaffected. The Swan was well hidden, and the Flame may have been guarded by Cerberus."

i'd say that patchy was in the pearl at the time of the rebellion as we saw a glass eye when locke and eko were in there. so perhaps (patchy and kelvin?) were unaware of the rebellion for a time. it could be that the abandoned notebooks from the pearl that we saw are patchy's own. eventually he abandoned the pearl and stumbled (?) across the flame and has been hatched up there since. if he lives there as our losties did in their hatch then it must have bathing facilities, food drops etc all as the swan.

other than that, great stuff zombie, as you said you can polish it up over time as there are some that are a bit sketchy but it puts things in a good order and doesn't rely on anything too way out.
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my simple theory

http://www.4815162342.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=23614

original member of the 3 Musketeers with NetProphet AND NotoriousRJF

[galdino]

[adam_n_eve]

was it sorry. my bad. i'm a bit chilled at the mo.

*pink eyed smiley*
_________________
my simple theory

http://www.4815162342.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=23614

original member of the 3 Musketeers with NetProphet AND NotoriousRJF

[gudge]

im now convinced Juliette and Danielle know of each other.

This is too much of a coincidence. The CALL came from near beginning of 1988, and she was there for a while before the "sickness". But we only know the word sickness and that Danielle killed them.

But if Danielle knew of the Others taking her daughter, why would she kill off allys? Because of this we must assume a mental sickness.

or the possibility Danielle is a part of Juliettes rebellion.... Ben didnt know he was going to be in the trap - Juliette did. But why? One possibility is that Juliette is blackmailing Danielle or doing all the mind games crap with the promise of seeing Alex.

Screw it - new theory time (it is far off from yours to be fair and i dont want to take attention from your theory in here anymore)
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Jack had a little cry

[zombie_soiree]

[Turing's Ghost]

Dr. Z-how can I ever find the time to post an adequate reply to your queries about my topic when you keep putting up intriguing comments on Bigmouth's theory and now this. Brilliant! Have you posted your own theories before?

Just three other questions for now. Do you have any theory on just what the Valenzetti equation entails? Likely it will never be really addressed on the show, but how could any mathematical conjecture predict our doom? I recall Asimov spent quite a few pages explaining Hari Seldon's formulations.

Do you think the writer's will tie Lost in with the LE, as you do in your theory? I thought they said it was a seperate, mirror reality of the show?

Seems I recall the writers also claimed the answer to the mysteries of Lost would not be Sci-Fi. If you can provide any links that show that nano-technology is anywhere near something like the black smoke, I'd like to read it. So much happening it's hard to keep up, especially in this field. Ever read Stephenson? "The Diamond Age?"

This topic would easily go into my top 5 of all time on Lost. Well done.

[zombie_soiree]

[IvanM]

If the metalic gear sound is an effect to scare people why does it systematicly occur only then monster wants to snatch or hurt people.

Somehow I think it is a neccesity , in other words the product of monsters function and not a sharade to fool people.
_________________
Theories:
Cage
Monster pt.1
Stalker