4815162342.com

[BearOnRollerskates]

So called because it took 4 hours to write. Some of this is inspired by other theories I have read, some of it is my own. It's long, and I hope it's worth your time to read....

I need to start by listing the various different maroonings that have
happened on this island...

Event Date
The Black Rock: sometime after 1870 (invention of TNT)
Adam and Eve: 40 to 50 years ago
Dharma Initiative: beginning sometime 1970-1980
French researchers: 16 years ago
Nigerian drug runners: 10? years ago
Desmond: 3 years ago
Flight 815: month and a half ago

Seven different episodes by which people arrived on the island. I also
think that there was an eighth marooning that may have happened about 5-10
years ago. More on that later.

Walking through each marooning event...

The Black Rock
Very odd. It appears to be a slave trade ship, but it is carrying
dynamite, which wasn't invented until 1870. Perhaps the captives were
prisoners (Australia was a prison colony for some time), or perhaps thy
were being held against their will. There is a lot of mining equipment on
the ship. The ship has a big hole in the side. And, most
mysteriously, the ship is nowhere near the water.

Adam and Eve
We know practically nothing about these guys except that their bodies have
been on the island for about half a century.

Dharma Initiative
Appears to have been active on the island during the 1970's. This is the
period described in the orientation films and implied by the decor in the
hatch. During the orientation film we meet Gerald and Karen DeGroot,
University of Michigan grad students who are trying to create a "large
scale communal research compound" for the conducting of research into
"meteorology, psychology, parapsychology, zoology, electromagnetism, and
utopian societies." The DeGroots get funding from Alvar Hanso, whose
foundation (according to their website http://www.thehansofoundation.org)
supports research projects on life-extension, electromagnetic research,
extra-terrestrial intelligence, mathematical forecasting, cryogenics,
eugenics, and remote viewing. There is circumstantial evidence that at
least some of these research projects are still active on the island.

Gerald and Karen DeGroot appear to have been among the boat people who
abducted Walt (http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/821/comparison6pz.jpg).
I think it is reasonable to assume that the DeGroots and other researchers
are still on the island.

French researchers
Followed a radio signal 16 years ago and crashed on the island. This is
the same radio signal heard by the crazy guys Hurley met. All but Rousseau
got sick and (presumably) died. Rousseau's baby Alex was abducted.

Nigerian drug runners
Dressed like priests and carrying heroin stashed in religious
paraphernalia. Cause of crash unknown, and survivors are unknown.

Desmond
Crashed three years ago while on a solo race around the world.

Flight 815
Drawn off course, then ripped apart in the sky. Many survivors have only
minor injuries, even though everyone should be dead.

I believe that there was an eight marooning event that we don't know much
about. It involved a lot of children, and it happened about 5-10 years ago.

So what is going on?

I believe that the island it a nexus of some kind. This can explain why so
many vessels are sucked into it. The nexus is caused by either natural
reasons, extra-terrestrial reasons, OR was caused by something being
carried on the Black Rock (or some combination of the three). I tend to
favor the idea that the Black Rock miners found something that crashed from
outer space. Here is a possible timeline...

The mining crew on the Black Rock discoverers an ET object and decides to
transport it across the Pacific. Perhaps this object is an alien artifact,
or even an actual crashed alien. During that time, their discovery starts
to infect somehow infect the minds of the crew. Infected crew members are
chained in the hold to prevent trouble making. The decision is made to
scuttle the ship, drowning the infected sailors, and sending the Object to
the bottom of the ocean. Dynamite is used to blow a hole in the side of
the ship and sink it to the bottom.

Some time latter, geologic activity raises an island under the Black Rock.
Given the extreme unlikelihood of this happening naturally, the Object was
most likely responsible. This is how the Black Rock is found so far inland.

Around 1960 the island is discovered by Adam and Eve (who are part of a
larger expedition of unknown significance). It quickly becomes apparent
that the island is far from normal. Two members of the party die and are
laid to rest in the caves. The rest of the party escapes from the island.

While in graduate school, the DeGroots meet survivors from this expedition.
They become determined to unlock the mystery of island. In order to do
this, they propose using the island as a "large scale research compound."
This is actually an elaborate cover story. The island would be used to
conduct unusual research projects while the DeGroots secretly worked to
unlock the secrets of the Object carried by the Black Rock.

The bring Alvar Hanso on board as a financial backer. It is also possible
that Hanso was somehow involved with the Adam and Eve expedition.

The evidence for these research projects is strewn all over the island.
The polar bears, for instance, my have been a zoological experiment testing
the ability of arctic organisms to adapt to tropical environments. The
magnetic field in Swan Station may involved in the electro-magnetism
research mentioned in both the orientation film and on the Hanso Foundation
website.

At some point, Dharma discovers that they have opened a pandora's box. The
alien object causes the the experiment to get out of control. The
"mathematical forecasting" researcher discovers that the Object can be
somehow warded off with a specific sequence of numbers (4 8 15 16 23 42).
This prompts the Dharma group to set up an antenna transmitting these
numbers in an effort to suppress the alien object. This also explain the
numbers appear on Desmonds's hatch and on his medication.

At some point, the Dharma researchers become isolated from the outside
world and trapped on the island. Dharma realizes that they have a massive
problem on their hands and they need help. About this time, the French
team shipwrecks on the island while following the Numbers transmission.

By changing the transmission put out by the antenna, Rousseau and her team
partially freed the Object. Perhaps this allowed the Object to activate
the "security system" in the Dark Territory. Because of the security
system, Dharma could not access the antenna to change the transmission
back.

The parapsychologists have a plan for interacting with the Object. They've
figured out that the newborn Alex is an ESP adept, and that s/he may be
able to control the Object using ESP. So they kidnap him/her.

With the Object partially under control, the Dharma research continues.
The parapsychology researchers (aided by Alex) begin attracting more human
vessels to the island. The survivors of these wrecks are treated like
human test subjects.

The Drug Plane crashed on the island as a result, although there isn't
enough information to figure out what Dharma's intentions were/are with the
Plane. I have a bit of speculation on this coming up...

Desmond's predicament is another experiment. Having trained for a solo
race around the world, he is psychotically prepared for the isolation
presented by his life in the hatch. So Dharma traps him on to the island
and sets him up in the previously abandoned Swan Station. Before being
abandoned, Swan Station had been used for another experiment, one that
failed. The concrete wall and the edited orientation film is evidence of
this. The experiment involving Desmond is an offshoot of this previously
failed experiment. Desmond's co-habitant Calvin was actually a Dharma
researcher who provided a contrived backstory about living in the hatch
prior to Desmond's arrival. He hung around long enough to make sure
Desmond would faithfully push the button, then he faked his own death and
returned to the Dharma research group.

At another point Dharma is able to trap a vessel that is FULL of children,
perhaps a school trip of some sort. They manage to get the vessel to crash
on the island. The Dharma utopian researchers believes that they have an
opportunity to mold these still impressionable children into a perfect
society. One of these researchers is Goodwin, and these children grow up
to be the "dirty feet" Others. I recently re-watched the beginning of "The
Other 48 Days". The three corpses left by the Others are all teenagers.
Goodwin explains to Ana Lucia that the kidnapped children are fine (they
have been integrated into his society). The Tailies themselves are
another Utopian experiment, and Goodwin is serving as an embedded
enthnographer. He suggest to Ana Lucia that the Tailies weren't actually
being attacked by the Others, and he flat out states that the physically
strongest survivors (and thus the biggest potential threats to his
experiment) were targeted in the first attack. He also tells her that
Nathan was eliminated because he has not a good person person (again,
fitting with the idea of utopian research). The nine kidnapped Tailies are
being used in other experiments, of an as of yet unknown nature.

How did the passengers on Flight 815 survive the crash? From the opening
scene of "The Other 48 Days," we know that the crash really did happen. I
think Dharma figured out a way to tear apart the plane in mid air such that
the major pieces of the plane fell onto the island. They also figured out
a way to temporarily beam out (Star Trek style) any humans on the plane.
Then, after the impact, the people were beamed back into the locations that
they would have ended up in had they remained on the plane. Since they
didn't actually crash, they sustained no injuries aside from those they
received in the few seconds between when the fuselage was ripped apart and
the people beamed out. Most injuries are from shrapnel and flying objects.
Very few are impact injuries (broken bones, etc).

The crash sets off the security system, which then releases the smokey
things, who fly around the crash site and blow up engines.

The fuselage survivors are also being used in a number of experiments.
Most clear is that Dharma is interested in controlling Walt. I suspect
that Dharma knew that one of the fuselage survivors was an ESP adept like
Alex. Ethan was embedded into the Fusies in order to identify this child.
Given their previous experience with Rousseau, Ethan initially assumed that
the child in question must be Claire's. So he abducts her when he gets the chance. Rousseau figured out what was going
on and attempted to steal Claire from Ethan with the goal of ransoming Claire's baby for Alex.
During Rousseau's abduction attempt, Claire escapes and makes her way back
to the beach. Dharma eventually realizes that they are really after Walt.
Seeing that Walt would soon be isolated on the raft, they decide to wait
until they could pick him off at sea. the DeGroots personally take part in
this abduction. It is also worth noting that the Dharma researchers are
all older that the dirty feet Others, and dressed differently. They are clearly
different groups.

Three other clues are provided by the list of Hanso research interests,
specifically cryogenics, eugenics, and remote viewing.

Dharma eugenics research could explain the lack of hairbrushes among the
wreckage. Dharma (thorugh Ethan) collected the brushes and is using any trapped hairs as DNA
samples.

Dharma cryogenics research might explain the mysterious Mr. Eko. It's
possible that Eko actually arrived on the island on the Nigerian drug
plane. He appears to be African and he also appears to be very spiritual
(recall that the drug runners were dressed as priests - perhaps they
REALLY were priests!). Dharma rescued Eko from the crash, cryogenically
froze him, and then (for some reason), reanimated him and added him into
the tail section crash. Since he never says much, we have very little idea
what is going on in his head he may be wondering where these people came
from and what the hell happened to the drug runners.

Finally, Dharma remote viewing research could explain the whispers in the
jungle. These whisper transcripts (http://lostlinks.net/whispers.htm)
sound like the sort of things that people would say if they were observing
an experiments from afar. Perhaps this is how Dharma is using the remote
viewing. Or the whispers could be ghosts. Whatever.

[headbangking]

dude you put in some time and thought and i think there are some good ideas but ultimately i believe aliens and start trek beaming are to cliche and predictable to be the answer. i definitely agree that the others and the researchers are different groups and the island obviously has a long strange history. maybe it is like the bermuda triangle in some way. a natural place of power, even a sacred site. the dharma initiative heard of it and were drawn to it because of it's power that really stems from a magnetic disturbance.

[BearOnRollerskates]

[LostFan32]

this is a really well thought out theory, i'd love to see it updated regarding Eko though, since this new episode shows he's not on the drug plane, but otherwise i really enjoyed reading the theory

but isnt there a sticky on this forum that says that spaceships or aliens influence the events on the island. i guess your theory doesnt really have aliens like controlling the island, just kinda hanging out, but anyways, good job

[LostFan32]

I wanna see what other people think of this theory

[ihavedvds123s]

i thought the writers already said that aliens weren't involved.

[BearOnRollerskates]

I was finally able to buy "Psalm 23" off of iTunes today and am ready to present some amended thoughts.

But first, I really liked the ideas posted by SDeda1us here: http://www.4815162342.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6249

If my idea is the What, When and How of LOST, then his/her idea is the Why. Nice work.

Second, Eko obviously wasn't on the drug plane, so please scratch that idea.

Third, for the alien naysayers, the Black Rock's dangerous cargo doesn't necessarily need to be extra terrestrial. It just needs to be paranormal.

The revalation that the monster is able to sift through memories is tremendously helpful here. As such, let me lay out the following amendments.

I think the Black Rock was carrying the monster. I also think that the monster's memory sifting can cause psychosis in weak-minded people. As such, I think that this memory sifting is what drove the men on the Black Rock insane.

I still think that the monster was suppressed by the numbers transmission, and that the disabling of this transmission allowed the monster to roam free:

Understanding that the monster is psychic reinforces my believe that Alex has managed to communicate with it. I no longer think that Dharma and the monster are at odds. Instead, I think there is a good chance that Alex is now controlling or commanding the monster. Thus, through Alex, Dharma has co-opted the monster to serve as security system, executioner, data collector, etc. And, given the (disputed) evidence of the monster at the scene of the crash, I think it is possible that it was used to bring down Flight 815.

The idea that Dharma now controls the monster makes a lot of sense to me. While free, the monster caused madness in many humans it interacted with. This explains the "sickness" of the French researchers and the "Quarantine" signs on the insides of the Dharma stations (which pre-date Alex's control of the monster). Now, the Dharma operatives do not seem to be afriad to roam the island. They know that the monster is no longer a threat.


Thoughts?

[TreyFefty]

I'm sold! There are a few holes and I was happy to see your update after Plasm 23. There is still the question of why Dharma picked these specific survivors. And instead of the button being an experiment it could be a surefire way to keep the monster supressed. If it is an experiment the Losties were probabley never meant to stumble across it. Or were they? The desomnd/jack/miracle in the docters office can't be ignored
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[dgmac50000]

First off good job with this. Second Eko couldn't have been on the drug plane because we saw the guy kick him off when he tried to get on. And i think that the plane was dharmas. And the Black Smoke was in the origonal incedent and is protecting the people that arnt dharma, like the first time loche met it it didn;t attack him, but when it saw him going for the dynamite it attacked because it knew that the hatch was bad

[chunkyleechong]

Well, that theory is well thought out. Good job on it. I just don't see that being the outcome of the show. One problem with it is, I doubt aliens have anything to do with it. This show doesn't seem like it has anything to do with aliens, it's not really a sci-fi show, in my opinion.